Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262025 250924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    132.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.3  40.4  42.8  48.7  50.5  46.8  50.1  26.6 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  97.0  97.0  95.0 102.0  92.0  76.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   166.0 136.0 158.0 155.0 115.0 117.0  96.0  87.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  81.0  79.0  78.0  80.0  76.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0  -9.0 -21.0  -9.0  N  N  N  F  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        3.0%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       23.5%       24.4%       23.9%
 30kt / 24h        9.6%        8.9%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%        8.9%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%        7.0%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.4%       15.4%       12.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%        3.7%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h       18.2%        5.0%       11.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        2.7%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h       24.2%       10.5%       17.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP262025 250924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    132.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.3  40.4  42.8  48.7  50.5  46.8  50.1  26.6 VF  F VF VF VF VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  81.0  79.0  78.0  80.0  76.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0  -9.0 -21.0  -9.0  N  N  N  U  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%