Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262025 250926 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 123.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 100.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.8 42.4 34.5 18.7 28.0 24.5 17.5 29.9 VU VU U N N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 76.0 73.0 72.0 60.0 40.0 29.0 24.0 23.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 74.0 75.0 110.0 126.0 116.0 144.0 130.0 122.0 N N F F F VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 76.0 77.0 78.0 79.0 83.0 80.0 80.0 N F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -23.0 -6.0 -2.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 VF VF F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.9% 4.2% 7.0% 25kt / 24h 29.7% 34.6% 32.2% 30kt / 24h 15.4% 24.0% 19.7% 35kt / 24h 13.3% 24.0% 18.6% 40kt / 24h 5.4% 18.6% 12.0% 45kt / 36h 17.1% 20.7% 18.9% 55kt / 36h 4.7% 6.7% 5.7% 55kt / 48h 8.6% 14.6% 11.6% 70kt / 48h 1.8% 4.6% 3.2% 65kt / 72h 8.4% 11.9% 10.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.24 WP262025 250926 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 123.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.8 42.4 34.5 18.7 28.0 24.5 17.5 29.9 VF VF F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 76.0 77.0 78.0 79.0 83.0 80.0 80.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -23.0 -6.0 -2.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 VU VU U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%