Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262025 250926 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.70 120.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.6 29.4 32.0 30.6 24.5 18.8 21.5 21.5 U N U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 73.0 72.0 66.0 52.0 41.0 32.0 24.0 17.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 85.0 81.0 76.0 100.0 115.0 102.0 42.0 49.0 F N N F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 77.0 78.0 78.0 79.0 85.0 87.0 87.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -10.0 -6.0 -6.0 -7.0 -4.0 -9.0 -15.0 VF F F F F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.7% 6.8% 8.8% 25kt / 24h 29.5% 36.0% 32.7% 30kt / 24h 16.1% 25.3% 20.7% 35kt / 24h 12.9% 25.3% 19.1% 40kt / 24h 5.0% 21.0% 13.0% 45kt / 36h 15.9% 21.8% 18.9% 55kt / 36h 4.8% 7.4% 6.1% 55kt / 48h 9.6% 16.9% 13.2% 70kt / 48h 2.3% 5.8% 4.1% 65kt / 72h 3.3% 12.5% 7.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.16 WP262025 250926 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.70 120.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.6 29.4 32.0 30.6 24.5 18.8 21.5 21.5 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 77.0 78.0 78.0 79.0 85.0 87.0 87.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -10.0 -6.0 -6.0 -7.0 -4.0 -9.0 -15.0 VU U U U U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%