Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262025 250926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    119.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  28.9  28.1  24.1  16.5  16.9  18.1  21.8  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  66.0  55.0  44.0  34.0  28.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  90.0  98.0  84.0 108.0  85.0  15.0  39.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  81.0  82.0  83.0  83.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -3.0  -9.0 -12.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  -9.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.8%        5.5%        6.7%
 25kt / 24h       25.4%       36.2%       30.8%
 30kt / 24h       12.8%       26.8%       19.8%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       26.8%       18.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%       21.5%       12.5%
 45kt / 36h       17.8%       22.4%       20.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%        7.8%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h        9.6%       21.2%       15.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        6.4%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%       12.8%        8.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP262025 250926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    119.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  28.9  28.1  24.1  16.5  16.9  18.1  21.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  81.0  82.0  83.0  83.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -3.0  -9.0 -12.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  -9.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%