Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262025 250926 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 117.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 78.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.0 30.6 28.0 25.4 19.1 21.5 21.5 19.5 U U N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 55.0 46.0 41.0 33.0 24.0 34.2 44.4 N N N N U U U N Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 76.0 100.0 116.0 115.0 102.0 42.0 49.0 81.0 N F F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 76.0 76.0 77.0 82.0 84.0 81.0 82.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -6.0 -5.0 -7.0 -5.0 -9.0 -18.0 -13.0 F F F F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 58.4% 27.2% 42.8% 25kt / 24h 64.5% 66.8% 65.7% 30kt / 24h 54.0% 64.3% 59.1% 35kt / 24h 53.1% 64.3% 58.7% 40kt / 24h 42.7% 64.0% 53.3% 45kt / 36h 44.4% 48.0% 46.2% 55kt / 36h 23.2% 26.0% 24.6% 55kt / 48h 13.1% 31.2% 22.2% 70kt / 48h 4.0% 13.1% 8.5% 65kt / 72h 2.8% 17.8% 10.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.00 WP262025 250926 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 117.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.0 30.6 28.0 25.4 19.1 21.5 21.5 19.5 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 76.0 76.0 77.0 82.0 84.0 81.0 82.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -6.0 -5.0 -7.0 -5.0 -9.0 -18.0 -13.0 U U U U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%