Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262025 250927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  25.0  22.4  21.5  26.1  23.8  17.8  16.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  41.0  38.0  33.0  25.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  77.0  80.0  84.0  21.0  57.0  87.0  81.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  79.0  84.0  82.0  85.0  86.0  88.0  89.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -4.0   5.0 -11.0 -10.0   1.0   6.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.4%       16.7%       22.6%
 25kt / 24h       47.8%       55.0%       51.4%
 30kt / 24h       33.7%       54.3%       44.0%
 35kt / 24h       33.7%       54.3%       44.0%
 40kt / 24h       22.5%       52.7%       37.6%
 45kt / 36h       26.1%       21.6%       23.9%
 55kt / 36h        8.2%        8.1%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%       14.6%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        5.3%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 WP262025 250927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  25.0  22.4  21.5  26.1  23.8  17.8  16.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  79.0  84.0  82.0  85.0  86.0  88.0  89.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -4.0   5.0 -11.0 -10.0   1.0   6.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%