Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262025 250927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  23.6  27.0  23.6  25.4  23.3  18.8  14.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  35.0  33.0  28.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  80.0  85.0  69.0  39.0  76.0  85.0  72.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  -4.0   8.0  13.0 -16.0 -14.0   5.0   4.0  N  F  U  U VF VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.1%        8.6%       11.3%
 25kt / 24h       25.6%       33.8%       29.7%
 30kt / 24h       17.4%       29.7%       23.6%
 35kt / 24h       17.2%       29.7%       23.4%
 40kt / 24h        8.6%       28.3%       18.5%
 45kt / 36h       12.6%        9.5%       11.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        2.8%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        7.9%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 WP262025 250927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  23.6  27.0  23.6  25.4  23.3  18.8  14.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  -4.0   8.0  13.0 -16.0 -14.0   5.0   4.0  N  U  F  F VU VU  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%