Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262025 250928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  20.3  21.8  25.5  22.8  19.1  16.1  16.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  28.0  25.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  73.0  72.0  57.0  52.0  74.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  82.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  -4.0 -22.0 -26.0   1.0   0.0   7.0   7.0 VU  F VF VF  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.7%       14.2%       16.4%
 25kt / 24h       34.0%       47.0%       40.5%
 30kt / 24h       25.6%       44.6%       35.1%
 35kt / 24h       25.6%       44.6%       35.1%
 40kt / 24h       10.7%       42.9%       26.8%
 45kt / 36h       16.9%       20.2%       18.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%        7.7%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%       15.6%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.6%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        6.2%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 WP262025 250928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  20.3  21.8  25.5  22.8  19.1  16.1  16.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  82.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  -4.0 -22.0 -26.0   1.0   0.0   7.0   7.0 VF  U VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%