Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262025 250928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  21.8  25.5  27.6  18.8  23.3  26.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  25.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  72.0  57.0  74.0  43.0  98.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  80.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -22.0 -26.0 -11.0  -5.0   7.0  15.0  15.0  F VF VF  F  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       32.7%       19.1%       25.9%
 25kt / 24h       38.8%       48.6%       43.7%
 30kt / 24h       33.9%       46.9%       40.4%
 35kt / 24h       33.9%       46.9%       40.4%
 40kt / 24h       15.4%       46.9%       31.2%
 45kt / 36h       22.3%       24.7%       23.5%
 55kt / 36h        7.8%       10.3%        9.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%       17.0%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        4.6%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        4.8%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 WP262025 250928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  21.8  25.5  27.6  18.8  23.3  26.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  80.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -22.0 -26.0 -11.0  -5.0   7.0  15.0  15.0  U VU VU  U  U  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%