Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262025 250928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  24.7  26.8  22.3  21.9  17.2  17.2  17.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  41.0  69.0  34.0  77.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  80.0  82.0  82.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -24.0 -18.0  -8.0   2.0  -1.0  10.0  10.0  10.0 VF VF  F  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.4%        8.5%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h       18.7%       31.7%       25.2%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%       27.7%       20.7%
 35kt / 24h       13.8%       27.7%       20.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       26.6%       15.0%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%       12.0%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        3.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%       11.0%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.8%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 WP262025 250928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  24.7  26.8  22.3  21.9  17.2  17.2  17.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  80.0  82.0  82.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -24.0 -18.0  -8.0   2.0  -1.0  10.0  10.0  10.0 VU VU  U  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%