Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262025 250928 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 106.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 78.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 41.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.3% 12.0% 12.6% 25kt / 24h 21.6% 35.3% 28.4% 30kt / 24h 15.7% 35.1% 25.4% 35kt / 24h 15.7% 35.1% 25.4% 40kt / 24h 7.6% 31.7% 19.6% 45kt / 36h 13.4% 11.9% 12.6% 55kt / 36h 2.4% 4.0% 3.2% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 7.5% 3.8% 70kt / 48h -0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 2.6% 1.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.88 WP262025 250928 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 106.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%