Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262025 250929 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 105.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 64.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.2 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 VF F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.4% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 3.2% 12.0% 7.6% 30kt / 24h 0.9% 8.2% 4.5% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 8.1% 4.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 6.2% 3.1% 45kt / 36h 1.7% 3.1% 2.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 5.1% 2.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 2.4% 1.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.88 WP262025 250929 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 105.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.2 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 VU U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%