Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262025 250929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    103.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       12.5%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        7.3%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        6.3%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        6.1%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.6%        4.5%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        1.1%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        7.9%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        0.9%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%        4.5%        7.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP262025 250929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    103.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%