Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262025 250929 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 101.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 16.1 18.6 19.1 30.6 49.4 60.8 85.1 F F N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 115.0 112.0 96.5 74.3 58.0 38.7 29.2 22.1 N N N U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 38.0 41.0 32.0 23.0 37.0 10.0 9.0 N N N N U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 83.0 79.0 77.0 78.0 69.0 62.0 46.0 F F F F F N N VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 7.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 3.7% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 1.6% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 3.5% 0.1% 1.8% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.98 WP262025 250929 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 101.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 16.1 18.6 19.1 30.6 49.4 60.8 85.1 U U N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 83.0 79.0 77.0 78.0 69.0 62.0 46.0 U U U U U N N VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 7.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%