Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262025 250929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     99.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  19.7  16.8  17.2  36.8  46.0  62.0  73.5  N  N  F  F  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        132.0 118.6 104.8  94.3  78.0  64.8  54.1  45.4  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  25.0  19.0  42.0  33.0  34.0   8.0  10.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  69.0  67.0  58.0  52.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        0.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 WP262025 250929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     99.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  19.7  16.8  17.2  36.8  46.0  62.0  73.5  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  69.0  67.0  58.0  52.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%