Rapid Intensification Guidance WP272025 251001 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.70 130.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 59.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 139.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 7.2 7.6 10.2 11.1 11.2 14.7 19.3 19.9 VF VF F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 116.0 115.0 114.0 112.0 105.0 86.0 71.0 54.0 F F F F F N N N Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 48.0 29.0 14.0 36.0 41.0 34.0 10.0 25.0 N N U N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 71.0 72.0 68.0 65.0 63.0 64.0 F N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 8.0 4.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.1% 23.8% 14.9% 25kt / 24h 56.6% 83.3% 69.9% 30kt / 24h 31.6% 74.7% 53.1% 35kt / 24h 22.9% 74.7% 48.8% 40kt / 24h 2.6% 69.6% 36.1% 45kt / 36h 54.3% 93.6% 74.0% 55kt / 36h 48.5% 91.3% 69.9% 55kt / 48h 87.6% 83.6% 85.6% 70kt / 48h 83.6% 88.4% 86.0% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 91.0% 76.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.40 WP272025 251001 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.70 130.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 139.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 7.2 7.6 10.2 11.1 11.2 14.7 19.3 19.9 VU VU U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 71.0 72.0 68.0 65.0 63.0 64.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 8.0 4.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%