Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272025 251002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  14.7  10.7  15.9  20.1  18.0  20.3  20.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  110.0 104.0  98.0  84.0  73.0  54.0  37.0  28.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 114.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  73.0  49.0  40.0  30.0  39.0  51.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       38.3%       39.7%       39.0%
 25kt / 24h       73.6%       85.3%       79.4%
 30kt / 24h       65.5%       81.2%       73.4%
 35kt / 24h       50.6%       81.2%       65.9%
 40kt / 24h       36.1%       81.2%       58.7%
 45kt / 36h       60.4%       85.5%       72.9%
 55kt / 36h       49.3%       77.8%       63.5%
 55kt / 48h       41.9%       67.6%       54.7%
 70kt / 48h       25.0%       62.8%       43.9%
 65kt / 72h       50.0%       63.3%       56.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP272025 251002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  14.7  10.7  15.9  20.1  18.0  20.3  20.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%