Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272025 251003 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  15.0  18.8  18.6  18.8  28.0  25.0  21.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  79.0  73.0  62.0  41.0  31.0  24.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  97.0  97.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  35.0  54.0  55.0  43.0  46.0  -3.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0   6.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       68.6%       54.1%       61.3%
 25kt / 24h       78.0%       85.9%       81.9%
 30kt / 24h       76.4%       85.9%       81.1%
 35kt / 24h       76.4%       85.9%       81.1%
 40kt / 24h       50.1%       85.9%       68.0%
 45kt / 36h       62.0%       74.8%       68.4%
 55kt / 36h       41.4%       61.6%       51.5%
 55kt / 48h       32.7%       48.3%       40.5%
 70kt / 48h       15.9%       28.7%       22.3%
 65kt / 72h        6.0%       22.7%       14.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP272025 251003 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  15.0  18.8  18.6  18.8  28.0  25.0  21.1  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0   6.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%