Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272025 251003 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  15.1  18.8  26.2  28.3  23.2  17.1  20.4  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  46.0  41.0  33.0  27.0  27.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3  99.6 105.0 104.3  82.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  73.0  43.0  42.0  44.0  10.0  64.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0 -14.0   3.0  10.0   2.0  F  F  F  F VF  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.4%        6.6%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       15.5%       29.1%       22.3%
 30kt / 24h        9.8%       19.9%       14.9%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%       19.9%       13.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       19.6%       11.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.3%        9.4%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        2.7%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        7.2%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        3.5%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 WP272025 251003 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  15.1  18.8  26.2  28.3  23.2  17.1  20.4  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0 -14.0   3.0  10.0   2.0  U  U  U  U VU  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%