Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272025 251005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  24.5  25.0  22.5  19.5  15.2  17.9  17.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.3  82.0  77.3  60.5  60.5  72.9  72.9  72.9  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  51.0  43.0  33.0  23.0   4.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   7.0   3.0  11.0  11.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        2.6%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%        7.2%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        4.6%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        4.3%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        4.1%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%        1.8%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        1.1%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 WP272025 251005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  24.5  25.0  22.5  19.5  15.2  17.9  17.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   7.0   3.0  11.0  11.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%