Rapid Intensification Guidance WP272025 251006 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 106.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 142.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 18.5 15.5 22.7 36.4 43.4 50.9 70.4 N N F N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 108.5 97.7 89.6 80.8 61.7 51.6 43.4 36.2 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 19.0 23.0 20.0 6.0 -1.0 15.0 27.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 67.0 67.0 65.0 61.0 68.0 67.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 7.0 7.0 9.0 24.0 35.0 22.0 22.0 N N N U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 3.0% 0.0% 1.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.54 WP272025 251006 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 106.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.