Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282025 251004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    143.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  24.7  24.1  27.0  34.7  26.5  23.4  31.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 132.0 132.0 132.0 132.0 132.0 129.6 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  25.0  24.0  -2.0  19.0  11.0  27.0  23.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  -5.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        3.4%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.0%       21.7%       14.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        9.2%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        8.7%        5.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        8.5%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       21.8%       12.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        8.4%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        6.8%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        5.3%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%       12.9%        8.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 WP282025 251004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    143.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  24.7  24.1  27.0  34.7  26.5  23.4  31.9  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  -5.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%