Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282025 251005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.90    142.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  23.5  23.7  26.7  18.3  19.7  14.7  20.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  39.0  37.0  38.0  37.0  33.0  28.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 132.0 132.0 132.0 127.3 127.3 112.4 108.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0 -12.0 -19.0 -13.0  -1.0   2.0  -3.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -7.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%       11.7%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        4.6%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.9%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       15.8%        8.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        5.4%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        6.6%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        3.9%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        9.8%        6.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 WP282025 251005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.90    142.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  23.5  23.7  26.7  18.3  19.7  14.7  20.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -7.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%