Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282025 251005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.90    142.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  29.5  28.5  21.9  18.2  18.0  24.6  21.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  37.0  38.0  38.0  35.0  31.0  26.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0 122.0 122.0 122.0 117.3 110.7 102.4  98.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  19.0  38.0  16.0  11.0  28.0   6.0  17.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0   3.0   6.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        5.3%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h       11.7%       27.0%       19.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%       13.8%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       13.8%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       13.7%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.7%       30.7%       19.7%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%       14.5%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h       13.4%       12.7%       13.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        9.2%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%       11.0%        6.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 WP282025 251005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.90    142.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  29.5  28.5  21.9  18.2  18.0  24.6  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0   3.0   6.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%