Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282025 251005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    142.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  28.8  18.9  17.4  18.5  18.0  22.5  36.2  U  N  N  F  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  37.0  36.0  37.0  32.0  28.0  24.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 117.0 117.0 112.3 107.9  97.4  93.5  89.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0   7.0   7.0   1.0   7.0   6.0   5.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -4.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   4.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        5.9%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h       15.1%       33.1%       24.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.4%       22.1%       16.3%
 35kt / 24h       10.4%       22.1%       16.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       19.4%       10.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%       33.8%       21.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%       18.1%       11.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.1%       12.4%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        9.4%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        7.8%        4.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 WP282025 251005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    142.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  28.8  18.9  17.4  18.5  18.0  22.5  36.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -4.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   4.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%