Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282025 251005 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.50 141.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.1 20.8 16.0 16.3 14.5 18.4 25.9 46.1 N N F F F F N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 38.0 37.0 35.0 31.0 26.0 23.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.0 107.0 102.3 102.3 95.7 89.4 87.4 83.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 15.0 3.0 30.0 22.0 U U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 62.0 61.0 61.0 62.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 19.0% 13.8% 16.4% 25kt / 24h 31.3% 46.3% 38.8% 30kt / 24h 31.3% 39.0% 35.2% 35kt / 24h 31.3% 39.0% 35.2% 40kt / 24h 6.6% 37.5% 22.0% 45kt / 36h 16.8% 42.2% 29.5% 55kt / 36h 11.6% 26.3% 18.9% 55kt / 48h 12.3% 14.7% 13.5% 70kt / 48h 4.3% 11.2% 7.7% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 5.5% 2.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.22 WP282025 251005 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.50 141.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.1 20.8 16.0 16.3 14.5 18.4 25.9 46.1 N N U U U N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 62.0 61.0 61.0 62.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%