Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282025 251006 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    141.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  21.8  22.6  25.1  18.3  20.9  37.0  37.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  34.0  32.0  30.0  26.0  20.0  14.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.3  97.3  97.3  92.9  82.4  80.5  74.8  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -15.0 -32.0 -22.0 -19.0  43.0  36.0  32.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0   2.0  -2.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.5%       12.1%       17.3%
 25kt / 24h       21.3%       29.7%       25.5%
 30kt / 24h       21.3%       21.9%       21.6%
 35kt / 24h       21.3%       21.9%       21.6%
 40kt / 24h        7.0%       21.3%       14.2%
 45kt / 36h        9.4%       20.7%       15.0%
 55kt / 36h        6.1%        9.6%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        4.8%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        3.3%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 WP282025 251006 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    141.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  21.8  22.6  25.1  18.3  20.9  37.0  37.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0   2.0  -2.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%