Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282025 251006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  20.0  22.3  17.2  16.9  20.4  31.3  48.7  N  N  N  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  35.0  32.0  30.0  26.0  24.0  12.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.3  92.3  87.9  87.9  77.4  69.8  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -40.0 -37.0 -35.0 -10.0   0.0  40.0  40.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   3.0   8.0 -24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.8%        9.5%       12.7%
 25kt / 24h       17.3%       22.1%       19.7%
 30kt / 24h       17.3%       16.8%       17.0%
 35kt / 24h       17.3%       16.8%       17.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%       16.8%       10.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       12.2%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%        5.1%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        3.4%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.7%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 WP282025 251006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  20.0  22.3  17.2  16.9  20.4  31.3  48.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   3.0   8.0 -24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%