Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282025 251006 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    140.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  22.3  16.2  14.6  17.3  27.9  40.7  51.4  N  N  F  F  F  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  33.0  30.0  28.0  24.0  18.0  11.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.3  82.9  80.7  72.4  68.5  64.8  56.0  57.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -41.0 -37.0 -35.0 -52.0  24.0  15.0  57.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  59.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  10.0   3.0  -9.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.7%       11.4%       16.6%
 25kt / 24h       19.1%       22.2%       20.6%
 30kt / 24h       19.1%       18.5%       18.8%
 35kt / 24h       19.1%       18.5%       18.8%
 40kt / 24h        7.7%       18.5%       13.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.3%       10.8%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        6.4%        4.4%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        2.3%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 WP282025 251006 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    140.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  22.3  16.2  14.6  17.3  27.9  40.7  51.4  N  N  U  U  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  59.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  10.0   3.0  -9.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%