Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282025 251006 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.60 139.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 15.8 14.7 18.4 22.5 34.1 44.9 58.5 N F F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 31.0 28.0 24.0 21.0 12.0 9.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 82.9 80.7 72.4 72.4 66.6 63.0 59.4 56.0 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -37.0 -35.0 -53.0 -10.0 0.0 40.0 41.0 65.0 VU VU VU U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 58.0 59.0 55.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 54.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 5.0 11.0 -13.0 0.0 N N N N N U VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.2% 10.8% 12.5% 25kt / 24h 12.8% 19.8% 16.3% 30kt / 24h 12.8% 16.1% 14.4% 35kt / 24h 12.8% 16.1% 14.4% 40kt / 24h 4.2% 15.0% 9.6% 45kt / 36h 5.2% 8.6% 6.9% 55kt / 36h 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 55kt / 48h 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.72 WP282025 251006 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.60 139.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 15.8 14.7 18.4 22.5 34.1 44.9 58.5 N U U N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 58.0 59.0 55.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 54.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 5.0 11.0 -13.0 0.0 N N N N N F VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%