Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282025 251007 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.90 138.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.7 13.6 16.3 15.7 25.1 42.8 52.1 59.6 F F F F N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 28.0 26.0 24.0 21.0 9.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 70.7 62.4 62.4 56.6 54.8 46.0 47.7 35.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 -45.0 -16.0 16.0 11.0 55.0 28.0 45.0 U VU U U U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 54.0 55.0 56.0 54.0 61.0 65.0 58.0 U U U U U N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 3.0 -33.0 N N N N N N N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 32.5% 19.4% 25.9% 25kt / 24h 23.9% 27.6% 25.7% 30kt / 24h 23.9% 26.2% 25.1% 35kt / 24h 23.9% 26.2% 25.1% 40kt / 24h 9.8% 23.4% 16.6% 45kt / 36h 12.2% 13.3% 12.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.56 WP282025 251007 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.90 138.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.7 13.6 16.3 15.7 25.1 42.8 52.1 59.6 N U U U N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 54.0 55.0 56.0 54.0 61.0 65.0 58.0 F F F F F N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 3.0 -33.0 N N N N N N N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%