Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282025 251007 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.60 137.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 57.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.8 17.1 16.2 17.4 31.2 47.4 52.8 64.8 F F F F U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 25.0 23.0 21.0 7.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 47.4 47.4 41.6 39.8 38.0 29.3 21.5 14.4 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -45.0 -16.0 17.0 13.0 57.0 22.0 49.0 62.0 VU U U U N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 56.0 56.0 57.0 58.0 60.0 58.0 U U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 7.0 2.0 -3.0 6.0 -10.0 -19.0 -70.0 N N N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 50.4% 22.2% 36.3% 25kt / 24h 25.9% 21.0% 23.5% 30kt / 24h 25.9% 19.2% 22.6% 35kt / 24h 25.9% 19.2% 22.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 WP282025 251007 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.60 137.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.