Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282025 251007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    137.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  14.3  18.1  26.4  40.1  53.5  59.6  63.5  F  F  F  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  23.0  21.0  16.0   9.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.4  21.6  19.8  18.0  11.0  11.0   0.0 -18.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  11.0  -9.0   0.0  50.0  30.0  45.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  55.0  53.0  61.0  65.0  56.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0  -6.0   7.0 -13.0  -1.0 -51.0 -51.0  N  N  F  N VF  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.9%        0.0%       16.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.16

 WP282025 251007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    137.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.