Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282025 251007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80    137.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  20.3  27.6  34.3  48.5  59.1  64.6  71.1  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  21.0  16.0   8.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         14.8  14.8  13.0   4.3   6.0  -5.0 -12.0 -23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  29.0  41.0  49.0  49.0  37.0  50.0  43.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0  12.0  12.0 -21.0 -17.0 -70.0 -64.0  N  N  U  U VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.94

 WP282025 251007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80    137.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.