Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282025 251008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    137.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  29.0  34.2  43.6  55.5  63.5  72.0  77.7  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  10.0   7.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         13.0  11.2   4.3   7.7   2.7  -7.8 -14.6 -44.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  33.0  49.0  85.0  21.0  64.0  61.0  33.0  N  N  N  F  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  51.0  55.0  56.0  63.0  63.0  56.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  16.0   6.0   5.0 -17.0 -61.0 -58.0 -33.0  N  U  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.74

 WP282025 251008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    137.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.