Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282025 251008 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.50 138.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 83.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 74.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.2 42.3 50.8 59.5 58.8 64.0 65.7 62.1 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 4.3 2.7 6.0 1.1 -10.6 -14.6 -37.6 -64.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 38.0 55.0 41.0 40.0 54.0 27.0 118.0 U N N N N N U F Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 54.0 58.0 59.0 62.0 61.0 62.0 67.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -8.0 -29.0 -7.0 -46.0 -59.0 -89.0 -19.0 F F VF F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.44 WP282025 251008 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.50 138.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120.