Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282025 251008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.50    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.1  50.7  60.2  62.4  66.1  66.6  92.1 110.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         12.7  16.0   5.0   3.6  -4.6 -25.0 -54.7 -67.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  55.0  41.0  46.0  37.0  42.0  69.0 182.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  64.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  61.0  63.0  71.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -26.0  -6.0 -36.0 -85.0 -61.0 -53.0 119.0 VF VF  F VF VF VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.14

 WP282025 251008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.50    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.