Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282025 251009 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.00 141.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 83.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.3 54.3 58.0 61.8 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 21.0 8.6 8.6 3.0 -9.1 -9.1 -9.1 -9.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 48.0 50.0 51.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 58.0 55.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -36.0 -15.0 -21.0 -22.0 -67.0 -67.0 -67.0 -67.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.90 WP282025 251009 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.00 141.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105.