Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282025 251009 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.00 147.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 61.6 62.6 60.2 60.0 76.1 91.0 84.4 84.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 28.6 21.7 17.9 20.4 -12.3 -40.3 -43.3 -43.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 58.0 54.0 71.0 96.0 145.0 121.0 121.0 N N N N F VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 55.0 69.0 77.0 77.0 U U U U U N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -44.0 -33.0 -99.0 -94.0-104.0 -22.0-258.0-258.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.30 WP282025 251009 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.00 147.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85.