Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282025 251010 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.10 153.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 61.0 62.2 63.5 64.9 108.5 77.1 77.1 77.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 37.9 39.2 27.7 7.7 -18.6 -23.4 -23.4 -23.4 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 11.0 16.0 45.0 102.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 U U U N F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 44.0 47.0 46.0 58.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 VU VU VU VU U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s]-128.0 -93.0-108.0-122.0-137.0 -48.0 -48.0 -48.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.14 WP282025 251010 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.10 153.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.