Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282025 251010 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.60 159.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 49.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 57.7 58.1 80.4 98.5 116.3 111.0 58.2 25.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 25.9 11.6 -4.9 -18.7 -28.2 -29.2 -30.1 -30.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 83.0 77.0 142.0 182.0 156.0 157.0 114.0 N N N VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 50.0 52.0 52.0 71.0 71.0 65.0 62.0 VU U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s]-134.0-124.0-153.0 111.0 -51.0 34.0 41.0 137.0 VF VF VF VU VF VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.78 WP282025 251010 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.60 159.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.