Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292025 251008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  32.6  32.7  27.9  17.4  12.0  17.0  10.5  N  U  U  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  74.0  64.0  60.0  49.0  43.0  39.0  38.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 127.9 123.6 119.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0   8.0  40.0  57.0  18.0 -19.0  13.0  26.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0  -3.0  -7.0   4.0   0.0   4.0   2.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        9.0%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       15.5%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        4.5%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h       17.6%        8.2%       12.9%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%        5.6%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       23.1%       21.7%       22.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 WP292025 251008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  32.6  32.7  27.9  17.4  12.0  17.0  10.5  N  F  F  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0  -3.0  -7.0   4.0   0.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%