Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292025 251008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    137.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  31.7  28.3  15.6  14.2  17.0  12.8  21.8  N  U  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  63.0  57.0  52.0  43.0  39.0  39.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 125.1 122.9 118.6 112.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  39.0  57.0  20.0  -5.0  -9.0  34.0  31.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  58.0  62.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0   0.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       13.0%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        4.2%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       19.9%       12.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%        6.5%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h       20.2%        8.7%       14.5%
 70kt / 48h        8.0%        6.5%        7.3%
 65kt / 72h       21.8%       19.3%       20.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 WP292025 251008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    137.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  31.7  28.3  15.6  14.2  17.0  12.8  21.8  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  58.0  62.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0   0.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%