Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292025 251008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    136.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  26.1  14.5  15.3  11.5  17.2  15.2  26.8  U  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  57.0  50.0  44.0  40.0  39.0  40.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 122.0 122.0 115.1 112.9 104.4  96.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  56.0  20.0  17.0 -19.0  12.0  26.0   8.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0   0.0   4.0  -2.0   4.0   0.0   5.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.0%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       19.5%       13.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        8.0%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        7.6%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        7.6%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.8%       21.7%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%        7.7%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h       17.4%        9.5%       13.5%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        5.7%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       10.7%       11.5%       11.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 WP292025 251008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    136.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  26.1  14.5  15.3  11.5  17.2  15.2  26.8  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0   0.0   4.0  -2.0   4.0   0.0   5.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%