Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292025 251009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  16.4  15.0  13.8  14.2  13.2  14.4  22.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  49.0  45.0  42.0  38.0  39.0  38.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 119.6 117.3 115.1 110.7 106.5 104.4  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  -1.0  26.0   0.0  20.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.9%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       14.9%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        6.3%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.4%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        5.4%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%       15.7%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        5.1%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h       22.0%        7.4%       14.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.1%        4.3%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h       21.2%       10.1%       15.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 WP292025 251009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  16.4  15.0  13.8  14.2  13.2  14.4  22.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   6.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%