Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292025 251009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  12.6  12.8  12.7  15.1  13.1  25.5  26.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  44.0  40.0  38.0  39.0  39.0  29.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 122.3 115.7 115.7 111.5 109.4  99.8  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  25.0   0.0  -3.0  35.0  58.0  73.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  61.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  65.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   2.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.3%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       15.5%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        6.7%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        5.5%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        5.4%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       19.9%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.7%        7.2%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h       27.6%        8.1%       17.8%
 70kt / 48h       13.7%        6.4%       10.0%
 65kt / 72h       12.1%        8.7%       10.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 WP292025 251009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  12.6  12.8  12.7  15.1  13.1  25.5  26.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  61.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  65.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   2.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%