Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292025 251009 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  16.6  16.3  16.2  17.6  12.5  20.7  26.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  42.0  40.0  38.0  39.0  38.0  23.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 120.1 115.7 115.7 111.5 109.4 101.6  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  -6.0  -8.0 -19.0  37.0  27.0   4.0 -27.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  59.0  61.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   8.0   7.0   4.0  -3.0   7.0   9.0   6.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%       15.6%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        7.3%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        6.1%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        5.4%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       19.4%       11.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        7.4%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       22.1%        7.4%       14.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.6%        5.8%        7.7%
 65kt / 72h        5.9%        7.0%        6.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 WP292025 251009 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  16.6  16.3  16.2  17.6  12.5  20.7  26.7  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  59.0  61.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   8.0   7.0   4.0  -3.0   7.0   9.0   6.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%