Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251009 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 133.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.9 17.3 18.6 19.7 15.9 29.0 32.2 42.9 F F N N F N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 37.0 36.0 36.0 33.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.7 111.5 111.5 109.4 103.5 98.0 87.7 89.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -6.0 -9.0 -20.0 7.0 63.0 7.0 -2.0 -25.0 U U VU U N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 53.0 54.0 54.0 61.0 66.0 70.0 71.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 1.0 11.0 -5.0 -13.0 U N N U N U F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 1.7% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 1.1% 8.0% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 3.3% 2.0% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 2.6% 1.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.2% 1.1% 45kt / 36h 1.5% 11.8% 6.7% 55kt / 36h 1.4% 4.0% 2.7% 55kt / 48h 11.2% 2.0% 6.6% 70kt / 48h 3.9% 1.7% 2.8% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.72 WP292025 251009 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 133.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.9 17.3 18.6 19.7 15.9 29.0 32.2 42.9 U N N N U N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 53.0 54.0 54.0 61.0 66.0 70.0 71.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 1.0 11.0 -5.0 -13.0 F N N F N F U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%