Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251010 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 131.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.3 21.8 19.0 20.5 27.7 28.7 41.8 61.1 F N N N N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 37.0 34.0 29.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 111.5 107.4 105.5 99.8 83.0 77.2 75.8 66.7 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -21.0 2.0 42.0 40.0 -1.0 -19.0 -2.0 31.0 VU U N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 52.0 53.0 55.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 55.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 5.0 8.0 8.0 12.0 2.0 -17.0-116.0 N N U U U N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.7% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.6% 2.0% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 6.1% 1.8% 4.0% 70kt / 48h 1.8% 0.4% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.38 WP292025 251010 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 131.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.