Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251010 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.70 130.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 15.9 14.1 16.6 22.3 33.2 40.4 71.0 N F F F N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 39.0 38.0 36.0 23.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 111.5 107.4 107.4 103.5 94.4 86.1 73.0 65.5 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 42.0 40.0 35.0 16.0 -18.0 0.0 22.0 U N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 56.0 55.0 52.0 49.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 8.0 15.0 2.0 -68.0 N N N N U U N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 7.7% 4.5% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 3.1% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 2.3% 1.3% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 2.0% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 1.0% 8.9% 4.9% 55kt / 36h 0.9% 2.8% 1.9% 55kt / 48h 10.3% 3.5% 6.9% 70kt / 48h 3.5% 1.0% 2.3% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 WP292025 251010 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.70 130.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.